Backtested Performance
Jan 2018 – Jan 2026 (partial) • S&P 500 Stocks • 2% Position Sizing • 2x Leverage
$1M Investment Growth
Performance vs Market Benchmarks (2018–2026)
Full comparison against unleveraged and leveraged market exposure
| Metric | Our Strategy | SPY (1×) | SPY (2×) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 24.77% | 13.17% | 23.45% |
| Max Drawdown | −19.56% | −33.40% | −57.71% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 18.46% | 16.78% | 33.96% |
| Sharpe Ratio (monthly) | 1.09 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| Total Return | +466.7% | +157.1% | +394.1% |
Note: SPY (2×) shown as a theoretical leveraged benchmark. Strategy equity is based on realized PnL only; SPY is mark-to-market. The strategy delivers similar returns to 2× SPY with 66% lower volatility and 66% smaller drawdowns.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Year | SC Equities | SPY | Difference | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | -4.77% | -7.16% | +2.39 pp ✓ | SC Equities |
| 2019 | +35.76% | +30.66% | +5.10 pp ✓ | SC Equities |
| 2020 | +59.22% | +15.15% | +44.07 pp ✓ | SC Equities |
| 2021 | +44.33% | +28.65% | +15.68 pp ✓ | SC Equities |
| 2022 ⭐ | +8.38% | -19.79% | +28.2 pp ✓✓ | 💎 BEST YEAR |
| 2023 | +20.25% | +24.77% | -4.52 pp ✗ | SPY |
| 2024 | +40.22% | +24.13% | +16.09 pp ✓ | SC Equities |
| 2025 | +1.96% | +16.50% | -14.54 pp ✗ | SPY |
| 2026 (Partial)* | +2.38% | +1.42% | +0.96 pp ✓ | SC Equities |
| Average (CAGR) | 24.77% | 13.17% | +11.60 pp advantage | |
💡 Key Insight: Downside Protection
Systematic Contrarian Equities outperformed in 7 out of 9 years. The strategy's biggest advantage came in 2022's bear market (+28.2 pp advantage), demonstrating exceptional downside protection when capital preservation mattered most. While SPY fell -19.79%, we stayed positive at +8.38%.
Equity Growth: Strategy vs SPY (1×) vs SPY (2×)
Visual comparison showing how $1M grows across different approaches over 8 years
Key insight: The strategy compounds capital through selective exposure, while leveraged SPY experiences large drawdowns during market stress. Our approach delivers similar returns to 2× SPY ($5.67M vs $4.94M final value) but with dramatically smoother growth and 66% smaller peak drawdown.
Risk Is Managed — Not Eliminated
Drawdowns are a function of realized losses only. Unrealized volatility is not smoothed or hidden.
Our Strategy
SPY (1×)
SPY (2×)
Key insight: The strategy delivers similar returns to 2× leveraged SPY (24.77% vs 23.45% CAGR) but with dramatically lower drawdowns (-19.6% vs -57.7%). This demonstrates capital efficiency through selective exposure, not permanent leverage.
Important Performance Disclosures
- • Backtested results ≠ future results. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
- • All results shown are simulated using historical data with STEP PnL methodology (Signal-To-Execution-Point).
- • Real trading involves slippage, commissions, and execution risk not fully captured in backtests.
- • Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. 2x leverage means 2x exposure to market movements.
- • Results assume reinvestment of all returns and no withdrawals during the period.
- • Individual results may vary based on account size, entry timing, and market conditions.
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